CGS International Securities expects SET Index volatility influenced by U.S. markets and tariff uncertainties. Thailand’s GDP growth projected at 2.3% for 2025. BOT likely to cut interest rates.
CGS International Securities anticipates the SET Index to face fluctuations due to external factors, including developments in U.S. markets and ongoing tariff concerns. Meanwhile, Thailand’s GDP growth for 2025 is estimated at 2.3%, reflecting cautious economic momentum. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to lower interest rates to stimulate growth amidst global uncertainties. Investors are advised to monitor international trends closely, as they may significantly impact market sentiment and domestic economic policies.
Market Volatility and Economic Outlook
CGS International Securities (Thailand) predicts fluctuations in the SET Index, influenced by instability in the U.S. stock market. The index is projected to move within a range of 1,155 to 1,180 points, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Trump’s import and reciprocal tariff policies, with further updates expected on April 3.
Thailand ranks 11th globally in trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, increasing the potential impact on its manufacturing and consumption sectors. This scenario has led to a revised 2025 GDP growth projection of 2.3%, down from 2.5%. The decline in GDP growth projection reflects concerns over external trade dependencies and domestic economic adjustments. Analysts suggest that Thailand’s manufacturing sector may face challenges in maintaining competitiveness, while consumption patterns could shift due to changing economic dynamics. Policymakers are expected to focus on diversifying trade partnerships and stimulating domestic demand to mitigate potential risks and ensure sustainable growth.
Economic Measures and Investment Advice
The Bank of Thailand’s anticipated rate cut aligns with efforts to stimulate economic growth amid persistent challenges. Analysts suggest that this move could enhance liquidity and improve borrowing conditions for businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee’s upcoming meeting on April 30 is expected to shed light on additional measures, including the cabinet’s electricity cost reduction plan, which could further support household spending.
In the stock market, heightened volatility in the SET index has prompted CGSI to recommend prioritizing defensive investment strategies. Investors are encouraged to consider stocks with strong fundamentals and resilience to economic fluctuations. Notably, GULF’s inclusion in the SET50 index and its trading resumption are key developments, signaling potential opportunities for growth-oriented investors.
For those seeking stability during uncertain times, CPALL and BDMS remain standout options. CPALL benefits from its robust retail operations and adaptability to changing consumer behaviors, while BDMS continues to demonstrate strength in the healthcare sector, a domain with consistent demand. Both stocks are well-positioned to navigate economic headwinds, making them attractive choices for long-term portfolios.
