The tradeoff raises concerns about food security, particularly for the Global South.
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C climate target may come at an unexpected cost: shrinking croplands. A new study finds global cropland could shrink by nearly 13% under current national climate pledges, with the steepest losses in the Global South.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries must adhere to specific climate pledges to mitigate global temperature rise. Even so, keeping warming within 2 °C by 2100 is a long shot. At the same time, the collateral impacts of these climate pledges, especially on land systems and agriculture is unclear.
“While much attention is given to reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to clean energy, far less focus has been placed on how climate pledges impact land use — particularly cropland,” first author Peichao Gao, of the Beijing Normal University, in China, told Advanced Science News. “We wanted to explore a critical question: if countries follow through on their commitments to limit global warming to 1.5°C, what will be the consequences for global cropland and food security?”
Gao and colleagues explored changes in croplands, and resultant food security, as a result of country-level climate pledges aimed at limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. They used a climate and energy model called Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to simulate how the use of land would change when subjected to different climate pledges. In order to look at these changes through a higher resolution lens, the team created a new land-system simulation model called Land-N2N, which allowed them to use a resolution of 5 km. From 27 scenarios that restrained warming to between 1.3 °C and 1.8 °C by 2100, the team chose a single scenario that limited warming to just below 1.5 °C.
Under this specific condition, global cropland is expected to reduce by 12.79% by the end of the century. In order to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C, loss of cropland would vastly vary across countries, with 81% of countries experiencing crop loss being in the global south. Projected cropland loss in the global north will be around 12.2% and in the global south will be 13% between 2015 and 2100.
South America is expected to lose the most cropland at 23.7%, followed by Europe at 14.9%, Asia at 12.8% and Africa at 11.2%. But in absolute terms, Asia will experience the greatest cropland loss, making up about 37% of the global tally.
The top ten countries facing cropland loss will see a drop ranging between 36.2% and 66.6%, averaging a 46.9% loss. Some of these same countries, such as Korea and Vietnam, are also highly reliant on crop imports. Countries and regions that are projected to experience both cropland loss while continuing to depend on food imports are most at risk for food insecurity. “Many Global South countries rely on the Global North — like the U.S., Canada, and Europe — for food imports,” said Gao. “But if these exporting countries can’t grow and sell as much due to cropland loss, it could disrupt global supply chains, push up prices, and limit food availability.”
While the tussle between urbanization and food production has long been reported, the study found that cropland is also at risk of afforestation in order to meet negative emission goals. For example, in South America, where land was deforested to grow soy, replanting forests would convert some of this farmland back into forest. “Our study shows that climate policies must look beyond just cutting carbon. They must also consider where land will come from for forests, clean energy, and farming — and who might lose out,” added Gao. “If we want climate action to be fair, we need to protect food systems in vulnerable regions and ensure that nature-based solutions don’t accidentally harm people who depend on the land.”
Since the research team did not account for extreme weather, shifting diets, or evolving land policies, the reality could look a little different. Still, the findings highlight where action is needed most. Policymakers should support sustainable farming in regions facing cropland loss, strengthen food trade networks to buffer local declines, and ensure climate efforts like reforestation don’t undermine food security.
Reference: Peichao Gao, et al., Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target, Nature Climate Change (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1
Feature image credit: Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash
