In recent days, Wall Street CEOs have offered various predictions about how the Trump administration’s tariff policy could impact their business abroad. Some have cautioned unavoidable fallout, while others claim their international dealings won’t be impacted. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs (GS), appears to fall somewhere in the middle.
“What we’re hearing from clients, particularly clients in Europe and other places around the world, is they don’t like the level of uncertainty,” said Solomon during the investment bank’s first-quarter earnings call today (April 14). When it comes to how this sentiment will play out for a global financial institution like Goldman Sachs, “it’s early to call heads or tails,” noted the CEO.
Markets have been reeling since April 2, when President Donald Trump unveiled the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs—an across-the-board 10 percent levy, with additional “reciprocal” duties targeting countries based on their trade deficits. China, notably, has seen its tariffs raised to 145 percent, while most of the other reciprocal levies have been paused for 90 days.
But tariff-induced anxieties remain. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), warned last week that his bank “will be in the crosshairs” as international clients and countries begin to feel differently about American financial institutions. Morgan Stanley (MS) CEO Ted Pick had a more positive take last week, saying he remains “bullish” on his firm’s global business.
Solomon, meanwhile, believes it’s too soon to tell. While the executive told analysts today that international clients are currently “extremely engaged” with the bank and there isn’t a decline of business on the horizon, Solomon noted that short-term concerns are particularly pronounced outside of the U.S.
In some ways, recent market volatility has been beneficial to Goldman Sachs. Heightened levels of uncertainty have spurred a rise in trading, driving up the bank’s equity trading revenue to $4.19 billion in the first three months of this year—a 27 percent year-over-year increase. Total revenue climbed 6 percent to $15.06 billion for the quarter, and profit rose 15 percent to $4.74 billion. Both figures beat estimates. Goldman shares rose 2.3 percent on the results today.
Dealmaking is slowing and heading into more uncertainties.
At the close of 2024, Solomon predicted a surge in mergers and acquisitions under a renewed Trump administration. So far, the reality has been the opposite. Goldman Sachs’ latest earnings reveal a clear slowdown in dealmaking, with investment banking fees dropping 8 percent year-over-year to $1.91 billion. The bank’s deal backlog has grown for the fourth consecutive quarter, Solomon noted, though he added that “our ability to execute on these transactions will, of course, be dependent on market conditions.”
Solomon, like other Wall Street leaders, has become increasingly worried about said market conditions leading to a broader economic downturn. During today’s earnings call, he warned that slowing economic activity around the globe means that “the prospect of a recession has increased.”
Dimon echoed similar concerns last week, putting the odds of a recession this year at 50/50. Other finance titans, like Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock (BLK), have declared that the U.S. might already be in one.
For the time being, Solomon is urging calm. “My guess is, over time, this level of uncertainty will come down,” he said. “My general message to people is to go slow and take a pause here until we have more clarity around a lot of these issues.”
