Indian auto sector is set to report a mixed bag for March 2025, with passenger vehicles (PVs) and two-wheelers (2Ws) witnessing sluggish demand, while commercial vehicles (CVs) and tractors see relatively better traction. Retail data suggests that auto sales momentum softened, impacted by weak consumer sentiment, unsold inventory, and cautious financing norms.
Passenger vehicle sales: Discounting continues, but demand remains weak
Despite aggressive discounting and pre-buying before the upcoming price hikes under OBD 2B norms, PV sales remain under pressure. Inventory build-up continues, and inquiries have slowed down, especially in the mid-segment. Hyundai and Tata Motors are expected to report subdued numbers, with Hyundai’s sales estimated at 63,500 units (-3% YoY). Maruti Suzuki, however, is expected to see a moderate 4% YoY growth, touching 1,95,000 units.
Two-wheeler sales: Premium bikes outperform, scooters lead the pack
The domestic 2W industry is projected to see an 11% YoY decline, as weak rural demand and stricter underwriting norms affect retail sales. However, scooters continue to outperform motorcycles, with TVS Motor likely to post an 11% YoY jump to 3,95,000 units. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors) is expected to clock 92,100 units (+22% YoY), benefiting from strong demand for premium bikes.
Commercial vehicles: Sluggish wholesale growth expected
CV sales are expected to show a marginal decline, with Tata Motors’ CV division posting a 2% YoY drop to 41,600 units. Ashok Leyland’s numbers are expected to remain flat at around 22,800 units, with some MoM improvement (+27%). Eicher Motors’ VECV unit is an outlier, set for 43% MoM growth at 11,600 units.
Tractors: Strong growth led by a favorable base and Rabi season expectations
The tractor segment is expected to be the best performer, driven by positive farmer sentiment and pre-buying before the monsoon season. Escorts is poised to report a stellar 30% YoY growth to 11,200 units, while M&M Farm Equipment may see a 15% rise to 30,000 units.
Looking ahead
With the upcoming festive season and pre-buying trends before price hikes, auto sales may pick up in April. However, financing constraints, rural sentiment, and inventory levels remain key factors to watch for sustained recovery.
