By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
New Mexico’s nine-point win over Marquette on Friday was the Lobos’ first NCAA Tournament win since 2012 and their second-largest margin of victory in the tournament.
It also was the first ever win for the Lobos against a Big East opponent in the tournament, having gone 0-5 in prior such games.
Today UNM will face a Big Ten opponent in the NCAA tournament for the first time ever as they draw the second seeded Spartans.
No. 10 New Mexico vs No. 2 Michigan State
Sunday, March 23
5:40 pm PT, TNT
South Region, Cleveland
In the win over Marquette, Donovan Dent had his seventh straight 20-point, five-assist game, the longest such streak in the nation in over two years.
UNM will certainly need a similar performance against MSU.
Michigan State got here with a 25-point win over Bryant in a game that was a lot closer for the first three-quarters of the game.
The blueprint for pulling the upset on be found on that game film.
Bryant took care of the basketball and in the first half they were able to battle on the boards. The second half is where the Spartans dominated the glass—and the game.
New Mexico was the top rebounding team in the Mountain West this season.
Against Marquette, the Lobos were able to put the game away down the stretch by not allowing any second-chance opportunities.
The problem is that the Spartans are the second-best rebounding team in the country and are 20th in offensive rebound rate at 34.3%.
If the Lobos are to stun the Spartans, they will need to prevent the putbacks.
New Mexico does not turn the ball over a bunch, and they can’t afford to give it away in this one.
What the Lobos will need to do is force miscues from the Spartans. MSU is 144th in the nation with a turnover rate of 16.2%—not terrible, but far from great.
This is an area where the Lobos will have an advantage.
Michigan State has a way of wearing teams down, allowing opponents to shoot just 40.3% from the field. And in games the Spartans shoot at least 42% from the floor, they are 22-2.
They certainly don’t have to shoot lights out to be sucessful and that comes back to the rebounding numbers.
With the Lobos, all season it has been about getting extra scoring chances as they are sixth in the nation with 6.0 more scoring chances than opponents per game.
Prevent the putback opportunities and force turnovers and the Lobos could find themselves in the Sweet 16. But against the Spartans, both of those are far easier said than done.
If Michigan State can pound on UNM, the second half could be where State pulls away. If New Mexico can run and keep MSU on its heels, this could be a shocker.
This one will be tight for the opening 20 minutes, but there is a reason Tom Izzo is 132-67 in the month of March in his career.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
