If.
A tiny word carrying so much weight.
Where the Los Angeles Clippers are concerned, “if” does so much heavy lifting that even Atlas is impressed.
If James Harden can turn back the clock, if Norman Powell continues to look like prime Klay Thompson, if Ivica Zubac can keep up his career best form, if Kawhi Leonard can remain on the court.
That last “if” is an almost eternal question when it comes to these Clippers, but if they can keep Leonard on the floor through the playoffs, Los Angeles is a team that absolutely nobody should look forward to facing.
As of Tuesday, the Clips sit seventh in the West, tied at 46-32 with Minnesota above them and Golden State below. They would face the upstart Houston Rockets were the playoffs to start today, assuming L.A. wins its play-in tournament game, but could conceivably face the top seeded Oklahoma City or their cross-town rival Lakers.
None of these teams should be excited at this prospect.
Despite getting only 34 games from Leonard — and about half of those where he looked decidedly under done — the Clippers have been amongst the best defenses in the NBA, currently ranked second in defensive rating at 109.0.
Kris Dunn remains a potluck offensive player, but is elite at the other end, ranking first in the NBA is Defensive Box +/-. Derrick Jones Jr. has taken the defensive chops that helped Dallas reach the Finals last season and transferred them seamlessly to Los Angeles.
If you can breach those two, you meet the slab of beef that is Zubac. Powell is no stopper but works hard at that end. Off the bench the Clips roll out Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons and Nicolas Batum, all plus defenders. Though Harden remains a liability as a perimeter defender, he is still stout when switched onto bigger players down low. Introducing a suddenly spry Leonard into that mix almost feels unfair.
Over his past 12 appearances, Leonard has looked back to his devastating best, pouring in 26.2 points (on 57/55/83 shooting splits, no less), 7.2 boards, 3.3 assists and 2.1 steals. His ability to create separation on his drives and pullups, especially to his left, is back. Throwing him into a middling offense that is far too reliant on the creation of the 35-year-old Harden could prove the shot in the arm that elevates the Clippers into the upper echelons of the conference.
With Leonard taking more of the creative duties, Harden has slotted into the secondary role that he is far more suited to at this stage of his career (some may argue the entirety of his playoff career). To that end, the Clippers rank third in offensive rating since the beginning of March. If the old adage that an elite team has to have a top five offense and defense holds true, the Clippers are, by definition, an elite team.
Defensively, they can throw a five-man unit of Dunn, Simmons, Jones, Leonard and Zubac at you. Best of luck scoring on that quintet. They can downsize with Batum at center when the need arises. Leonard’s return means that they can generate enough points without the need for Harden to be on the floor with a giant target on his chest.
Whilst the Thunder would understandably start as favorite in a series against the Clips, it would have all the makings of a Cinderella upset if but a few things fell L.A.’s way. A Rockets series would be an old-fashioned rock fight that would make 90s ball look free flowing by comparison. The Lakers should be quaking at the thought of facing this team.
If they can stay healthy, the Clippers are the sleeper contender of the West.
That’s a big “if” though.
