By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
The Big Ten Tournament gets underway with three games today. The only West Coast squad opening on day one is the 14-seed USC Trojans.
Oregon earned the 8th seed and a bye in the first round. The Ducks will open with Indiana in the first game of the day on Thursday.
UCLA secured the 4th seed in the tournament and the double-bye that goes with it. The Bruins will tip off in the second game of the day on Friday.
No. 14 USC vs No. 11 Rutgers
Wednesday, March 12
5:30 pm PT, Peacock
First Round
If the Trojans are to see their postseason continue beyond Indianapolis, they will need to string together some wins in the Circle City.
USC’s NCAA Tournament hopes require them to cut down the nets at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and that run will need to start with a win over the Scarlet Knights.
The Trojans limp into this one, having lost five of their last six games, with a 2-8 record in their past 10 games. One of those losses came at Rutgers.
USC is 13-2 this season when scoring at least 77 points, which was the case vs. RU.
The Trojans will need to be much better on defense this time after giving up 95 points to the Knights. Rutgers will look to force turnovers and get out and run.
If the Trojans can take care of the ball and pick up boards on the offensive end of the floor, they could see Round Two of this tournament.
If USC wins, 6th seed Purdue and Big Ten player of the year Braden Smith awaits as the next opponent.
No. 8 Oregon vs No. 9 Indiana
Thursday, March 13
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network
Second Round
The Ducks, who face Indiana in the 8 vs. 9 game on Thursday, are already safely in the NCAA Tournament.
The Hoosiers probably are as well, but a win would make the bubble they sit on less tenuous.
That is one of the reasons this is a dangerous opening opponent for the Ducks.
The game tips off just 50 miles from the IU campus, and Oregon likely won’t benefit from the early tip time.
These teams met just a week ago in Eugene, and Oregon won 73-64 in a physical game.
Nate Biddle struggled from the floor, connecting on just three of 10 from the field, but he got things done at the foul stripe, connecting on all eight of his FT attempts.
The Ducks were dominant at the line that night, hitting 19 of 21 and outscoring the Hoosiers 19-3 from the foul stripe.
Oregon cannot expect similar FT totals in this one and will have to be better than their 39% from the floor.
Indiana does not turn it over much, so Oregon must be good in the half-court.
In the first meeting, the Ducks assisted on 62.5% of their made FGs, much better than their 54.6% rate for the season.
If Oregon can get good ball movement, they should be able to get some open looks. The guards, in particular, will need to play well with a stellar game from Jackson Shelstad.
Should the Ducks defeat Indiana, top-seeded Michigan State would loom as their reward.
In their first meeting in February, the Spartans won by 12 points at home. This one should be another physical matchup.
There are many similarities between the Ducks and their first two opponents. A deep run in Indy would ensure Oregon a good seed in the NCAA tournament.
No. 4 UCLA vs Game 9 Winner
Friday, March 14
11:30 am PT, Big Ten Network
Quarterfinals
UCLA will play the waiting game for the opening two rounds of the Big Ten Tournament.
As the 4th seed, the Bruins will play the winner of Thursday’s game between 5th-seeded Wisconsin and either 12th-seeded Minnesota or No. 13 Northwestern.
UCLA went 2-1 against those three teams this season, but none of the wins came easily.
The Bruins beat Wisconsin by two and defeated Northwestern in a surprising dogfight of a game.
UCLA fell to Minnesota at Pauley, squandering a 17-point lead and allowing Dawson Garcia to go off in the second half.
The Bruins are 8th in the nation with 6.2 extra scoring chances per game than their opponents, the best mark in the Big Ten by a decent margin.
Northwestern is second in the conference at +4.8.
That is part of what makes the Cats a dangerous opponent.
The men of Westwood are securely in the NCAA field, but some wins in Indianapolis could set the table for a deep run in March.
If the Bruins are to make some moves in any tournament this month, they will need to be better on the glass.
That was a big problem for the Bruins in the first meeting with Minnesota.
UCLA’s potential semifinal opponent would be the top-seeded Spartans, and rebounding would be supremely important in that contest.
writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
