By Anders Lorenzen
As the results of the 1st of May UK local elections, which were the public votes in 23 out of England’s 317 councils, the consensus in the country’s mainstream media outlets was that of a forward march of the ultra extreme right political party, the Reform Party.
The voting surge of the climate-denying Reform party
The party, founded in 2018 as a successor to the Brexit Party, is led by populist, anti-immigration, and climate-denier Nigel Farage.
Even though the headlines and commentary from political commentators painted a picture of a national surge, the data reveals a more fragmented reality—Reform’s gains came in pockets of disengagement and disillusionment, not in a broad political wave.
2025 UK local elections: What does the data say?
But looking at the data, the results may not be as significant as what has been laid out.
The Conservatives’ defeat was resounding and extraordinary for a party that, in opposition, should be gaining and not losing seats.
Not a move towards the right and anti-net-zero
However, one must be wary of labelling this as a move to the far right and an increased appetite for far-right policies, as the data does not support this.
Though Labour increased its national vote share, it lost 198 seats in this specific election, which covered only 23 of England’s 317 councils — many in more rural or traditionally conservative areas.”
The Conservatives lost a staggering 635 seats, Labour lost 198, and Independents lost 97.
Reform won 648 seats, the Liberal Democrats 146, and the Green Party 41. Owing to Britain’s first-past-the-post political system.
Significant defeat to the Conservatives
The Conservatives paid the highest price, losing 15 councils, with Labour losing just one. Reform gained 10, the Liberal Democrats gained three, and the number of councils with no overall control increased by three.
From a purely mathematical point, there was very little difference and no significant shift between the left and right parties.
Additionally, as the Conservatives have moved further right over the last few years, many would have argued that there’s not that much splitting the two parties. On a simplistic point, you could even say that voters simply moved from the Conservatives to Reform.
What do these elections say about climate and net-zero?
There is anxiety in some circles that, in particular, the Labour Party could misread what these results tell them.
Some commentators suggest the party could respond by weakening or even dropping some of its policies and moving closer to reform policies to appease more voters.
Conservatives are distancing themselves from net-zero
Reform and the Conservatives have been ganging up on Labour to attack them on their climate and net-zero policies.
This is done by making unfounded and disinformative claims, such as that net-zero is raising energy prices in the UK.
Nigel Farage is adopting Donald Trump’s climate playbook
Farage, a strong supporter of Donald Trump, even used tactics straight out of his playbook, warning council workers with jobs on climate and diversity that they should start to look for new jobs.
Reform is betting on opposition towards net-zero
Many see Farage as the architect behind Brexit. He now targets net-zero policies, believing he can be as influential on this as on Brexit.
There is a significant concern that giving more power to climate-denying Reform could begin a climate discourse in the UK.
There is an argument that the anti-climate agenda of the Trump-led US government and the threat of reform are leading the Conservatives to significantly backtrack on this issue.
Is climate cross-party support at risk?
Unlike countries like the US and Australia, while Labour and the Conservatives have disagreed on how best to tackle climate change, there has been a broad cross-party support for climate action between the two largest UK political parties.
But could this be about to change, given the trend of less dominance for the country’s historically main political parties?
The Conservatives are moving towards climate inaction
The current leader of the Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, on the very right of the party, has stopped short of denying climate change.
However, under her leadership, the party has dropped net-zero targets and downplayed the priority of taking action on climate change.
This could threaten the historic bipartisanship of climate action in the UK parliament, which saw the implementation of the legally binding Climate Change Act in 2008.
All eyes on Labour and net-zero
While Labour has so far said it does not plan to change its net-zero policies, voices within the party want it to weaken its targets and take a tougher stance on immigration.
Keir Starmer stands behind Ed Miliband and net-zero
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has publicly said he supports Ed Miliband, the climate, net-zero, and energy minister.
But it is well known that there is an eternal battle between Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Miliband. Reeves has so far won the fight as the government has backed the expansion of the country’s largest airport, Heathrow.
Strong support for climate action among the UK public
Climate advocates would want to stress that the gains for both the Lib Dems and the Greens show strong support for climate action policies in the UK.
The public wants climate action
Polling data backs this up.
The latest YouGov polling on the issue, published last year, shows that 67% of the public accept that the climate is changing due to human influences, 17% believe it is changing due to natural causes, and just 4% do not think it is changing.
Could there be worse to come?
It is worth noting that these results do not paint an overall national picture, as this election only corresponded to 23 out of 317 councils in England, and not Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish councils.
Additionally, Labour’s stronghold is in cities and large metropolitan areas, and none of these councils were in such areas.
If this trend continues when local elections are held in London, Manchester, Birmingham, and so on in 2026 and 2027, then there’s serious cause for concern.
If, additionally, polling shows a declining trust and appetite for climate action and net-zero policies, then climate advocates and groups would want to press the alarm button.
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