FSSIA anticipates the Thai market to trend sideways to downward, driven by an investment slowdown and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The SET Index faces pressure from the energy sector, with support levels at 1,140-1,155 points and resistance at 1,165-1,173 points.
Market Expectations Amid Downturn
As of April 5, 2025, the Thai stock market, tracked by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index, faces a challenging outlook shaped by both domestic and international pressures, particularly Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of the current sentiment and projections based on the latest developments.
The SET Index has taken a beating recently. On April 4, posts on X and reports noted a 3.18% drop (36.44 points) to 1,125.37, its lowest in over five years, triggered by news of a U.S. 37% tariff on Thai imports starting April 9 (slightly higher than the 36% previously cited, suggesting an adjustment or misreport). This followed a broader Asian market slump, with Thailand’s industrials and export-reliant sectors—like food and electronics—dragging the index down. Year-to-date, the SET has shed around 16-20%, making it one of the world’s worst-performing major indices in 2025, a stark contrast to its 3% GDP growth in Q3 2024.
SET Index Levels and Market Closure
FSSIA predicts the SET Index may encounter downside risks if it cannot maintain a support level of 1,155 points, with resistance anticipated between 1,165 and 1,173 points. Support levels are projected between 1,140 and 1,155 points. On the previous day, Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,161.81 points, down 10.88 points or 0.93%, with a trading value of THB 41.06 billion.
Key Influences
- Trump’s Tariffs: The U.S., absorbing 10% of Thailand’s exports (60% of its GDP), imposed the 36-37% tariff as part of Trump’s April 2 policy targeting trade surpluses. Thailand’s $45 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024 made it a prime target. Analysts estimate a 160 billion baht economic hit, with Nomura flagging Thailand as Southeast Asia’s biggest loser due to its auto parts and agricultural exposure.
- Export Vulnerability: Stocks tied to exports—e.g., Gulf Energy Development (down 6.15% on April 4)—are reeling. The tariff threat has sparked heavy sell-offs, especially among large-cap firms, amplifying the index’s decline.
- Foreign Investor Exodus: Foreign funds have pulled out massively, with net sales hitting 68.86 billion baht in Q1 2025 alone. This follows a 23-month trend of dominance in trading volume, reflecting a collapse in confidence.
- Domestic Woes: A $4.5 billion rescue plan earlier this year flopped, and listed companies’ 2024 earnings missed forecasts, slashing EPS and investor sentiment. Political uncertainty—e.g., a no-confidence motion against PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra—adds to the gloom, despite her assurances of stability through 2027.
Short-Term Outlook (April-May 2025)
Analysts, like those at FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA), expect the SET to trade sideways-down in the near term. On April 4, FSSIA pegged resistance at 1,165-1,173 and support at 1,140-1,155, but the index’s fall below 1,150 signals vulnerability. If it breaches 1,140, a deeper slide to 1,100 or lower is possible, driven by tariff fallout and energy sector weakness (oil prices dipped recently). Posts on X highlight a “steep decline” in Thai equities, with investors shunning risk amid trade war fears. A rebound hinges on U.S.-Thai trade talks yielding relief—PM Paetongtarn hinted at seeking “support measures”—but no concrete progress has emerged by April 5.
Longer-Term Outlook (Rest of 2025)
The broader 2025 outlook is murky. Pre-tariff forecasts were cautiously optimistic—Reuters cited a 2.7% GDP growth projection, buoyed by 36 million tourists—but trade wars cloud this. ING estimates 3% of Thailand’s GDP is tariff-exposed, and Maybank Securities (March 28) saw sideways trading unless domestic boosts (e.g., the Entertainment Complex law) gain traction. The SET’s forward P/E ratio, at 14.6 times in March 2024, exceeds Asia’s 12.5 average, suggesting overvaluation despite a 3.3% dividend yield. If tariffs persist, Kingsford Securities’ advice to pivot to safe stocks (e.g., BDMS, ADVANC) may dominate, capping upside. Tisco Securities’ March 20 target of 1,200 now looks distant without a tariff rollback or stimulus surge.
Sentiment and Scenarios
- Bearish Case: Continued foreign outflows, tariff escalation (Trump’s hinted at worse), and weak earnings could push the SET toward 1,000-1,050 by mid-2025, a five-year low not seen since the 2004 Tsunami drop.
- Base Case: Sideways drift around 1,100-1,150 persists through Q2, with volatility tied to trade news. Tourism and minor stimulus (e.g., Thai ESGX Fund) offer limited lift.
- Bullish Case: A U.S. tariff reprieve or China’s stimulus (post-NPC) spills over, lifting export sentiment and nudging the SET toward 1,175-1,200 by year-end.
Bottom Line
The Thai stock market’s outlook is grim short-term, with Trump’s tariffs casting a long shadow. April’s plunge reflects a market in retreat, and while domestic recovery signs exist (e.g., Q3 growth), external pressures dominate. Investors are in wait-and-see mode—watch U.S. trade moves and the baht (near 34.20/USD in March)—but for now, the SET’s a tough bet in a tariff-stung Asia.
