Hope springs eternal for most baseball fans during spring training.
Yardbarker MLB writers, however, are here to deliver downers: American League players who are due for a regression this season. (2024 records for each team are in parentheses.)
AL East
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (91-71) | RHP Albert Suarez | The 35-year-old was a surprise breakout star for the Orioles last season (3.70 ERA in 24 starts). But several metrics don’t favor a repeat performance for Suarez in 2025, including a low ground-ball and strikeout rate.
BOSTON RED SOX (81-81) | Catcher Connor Wong | Wong’s .280/.333/.425 slash line with 13 home runs will be tough to repeat in 2025. A look beyond the surface explains why: He struck out almost five times more than he walked last season (23.4% strikeout rate versus a 5.7% walk rate).
NEW YORK YANKEES (94-68) | RHP Luke Weaver | Weaver stepped up big time to become the team’s highest-leverage reliever in 2024 (2.89 ERA in 62 appearances), but there’s a reason New York traded for former Milwaukee Brewers relief ace Devin Williams in the offseason. Weaver’s pitch velocity and strikeout numbers were solid, but he struggled to keep the ball on the ground and didn’t do enough to prevent hard contact in 2024, which is a problem considering Yankee Stadium’s short corner outfield walls.
TAMPA BAY RAYS (80-82) | RHP Zack Littell | Littell’s conversion to starting pitcher from reliever in Tampa has mostly been successful. However, his 3.63 ERA over 29 starts last season doesn’t appear sustainable heading into 2025. Key metrics — such as his strikeout percentage, ground-ball rate and hard-hit percentage — are well below league average.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (74-88) | 3B Ernie Clement | Clement has a good ability to limit strikeouts compared to the league average, but he is far below average in walk rate. He also doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard (his 85.5 mph exit velocity is below the MLB average of 89 mph), suggesting a regression in 2025. — Seth Carlson
AL West
ATHLETICS (69-93) | RHP Luis Severino | Severino resurrected his career with the Mets in 2024, leading to a three-year, $67M contract to take over as the A’s ace. The move from pitcher-friendly Citi Field to the minor league Sutter Health Park should have a drastic impact on Severino in 2025.
HOUSTON ASTROS (88-73) | RHP Ronel Blanco | Blanco pitched a no-hitter in his first start in 2024 and never looked back, posting a 2.80 ERA, and his 6.1 hits per nine innings led the majors. However, Blanco posted a .221 batting average on balls in play against (league average is .292), indicating Blanco’s career year was probably a fluke.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (63-99) | LHP Yusei Kikuchi | The Astros tweaked Kikuchi’s pitch mix after acquiring him from the Blue Jays, leading to the best two months of his career. He parlayed those two months into a three-year contract worth just over $63M with the Angels, a team that is not known for getting the best out of their players.
SEATTLE MARINERS (85-77) | OF Victor Robles | Robles appeared to finally have his long-awaited breakout when he landed in Seattle after being released by the Nationals. His .328/.393/.467 slash line was fueled by an unsustainable .388 batting average on balls in play (league average is .296). He had a mediocre hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
TEXAS RANGERS (78-84) | Catcher Kyle Higashioka | Higashioka hit a career-best 17 homers in 2024 but will turn 35 April 20. Add in a .263 on-base percentage that ranked 310th of 324 players with at least 250 plate appearances and Higashioka is set up for a disappointing season. — David Hill
AL Central
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (41-121) | LHP Martin Perez | Perez had two distinct seasons in 2024, posting a 5.20 ERA and a 1.651 WHiP with the Pirates and a 3.46 ERA and a 1.212 WHiP with the Padres. The downtrodden White Sox aren’t close to either of those teams.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (92-69) | OF Steven Kwan | Kwan had a miserable second half, posting a .206/.316/.302 slash line in 232 plate appearances after the All-Star break. He is a much better hitter than that, but Kwan is not likely to be flirting with .400 in the first half either or approaching a career-best 14 homers again.
DETROIT TIGERS (86-76) |RHP Jack Flaherty | Finally healthy for the first time in three years, Flaherty showed the form that made him one of the top young pitchers in the game last season (13-7, 3.17 ERA). Because of issues with his health over the years (he missed time in 2021 and 2022), it is fair to wonder if he can replicate his success.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (86-76) | Catcher Salvador Perez | Perez turned back the clock in 2024 to post one of the better offensive seasons of his career (27 HR, 104 RBI) in 2024. The Royals plan to give him more time at first, but he will turn 35 on May 10 and has a lot of wear and tear.
MINNESOTA TWINS (82-80) | RHP Griffin Jax | Jax quietly had one of the better performances of a reliever in 2024, posting a 2.03 ERA and a 0.873 WHiP with 95 strikeouts. He also allowed a .515 OPS against despite his batted ball metrics being close to league average. Jax should still be a key part of the bullpen, but a step back is likely. — David Hill
